Blogging Run Bad?

I mean, who really is going to scope these posts by me to see if they can squeeze tiny edges out of leaks in my games at the lowest stakes PokerStars offers? It has to be blogging run bad. It is kind of funny how I seem to run bad as soon as I make a post though. Forget cash out doomswitch, I have a blogger doomswitch that I need to fix.

That is my cumulative run at the 6max hypers I mentioned in my last post. Yes yes, #lolsamplesize and such, and yes yes I know how easy it is to run 50 BI below EV or have a 500 BI downswong, and yes yes I even did run good.

I DON'T CARE!!

The last post I made was right at the top of that graph. That big drop is a 20 BI cashless streak, of which I was one tabling making the best play I could every time. I'm pretty sure a breakeven stretch over 1000 games would be less painful than that small session. Squeezing out a 1-5% ROI wouldn't be so bad if I was on my way to SNE, definitely not on my way to silver.

I did enjoy my time playing them and I will continue to log in some time with them while cuddling with the lady or got some time to kill with my phone, but for sure it is time to get back to serious business. Time to get myself back to 7-10% ROI on Tilt's $2.25 and $5.00 turbos and possibly start getting some minor rakeback. I may come back to them at a higher stake when I need to get some Stars rakeback, but for the foreseeable future I will only be studying and pushing my edge.

On the plus, I did develop my HUD a bit further which will for sure lead to more exploitative play when I get back to my main games. I also had some great exposure to a new(ish) type game which expanded my understanding of the game somewhat. 6max and PokerStars regs are less intimidating to me now at the very least. So all in all I am begrudgingly happy and ready to blow through the low stakes as quick as I can.

BR ~ $600

Change to the plan.... again...

Lately I have been messing around with SNGWIZ 2.0 has been fun and useful. To try it out I figured I would run a few 6-max hyper turbos to get some new data. The software has a few bugs to work out for sure, but being able to tweak the ranges as ICMizer can is a sweet bonus. Running a few trials of exactly the same situations also demonstrated the algorithm has changed as well. It does seem to have a closer to accurate representation of the true ranges, true weight of ICM and includes at least one future hand with Nash ranges included in the calculation.

The 6-max hypers have been quite the eye opener as well. A couple of the important benefits are that I can load up a full session quicker than 9-man turbos and can finish them up quicker when I want. This gives me a lot more freedom as to when I start and end my sessions and it takes a great weight off my chest when thinking about how I want to schedule my play. Just tonight I put two loads of laundry through, did the dishes, spent some time with the lady, wrote this post and got at least a couple hours and ~50 games in. I must have put in 4 or so quick sessions to get all that done.

The games themselves pretty much play themselves out to a certian degree. Just a quick glance at the basic stats and the situation I am in is usually enough to give me the decision I am looking for. There is a lot less effort I put toward making the best decision given the information present at all times, so I have a bit more brain power to give as well. With will power being a finite resource, this leaves me feeling fresh during the entire session and I feel I am playing better poker as a result. Also, maybe the most important thing about this is that I can sit on my laptop beside the lady while she watches TV in the background. She is pretty cool about me playing poker while she watches whatever she wants, as long as we are together. It is easy for me to zone out, so I don't feel that I am losing too much value while I am doing this. The plus life EV about keeping the lady happy is pretty awesome while I am grinding out a few bucks an hour building the dream, and she seems to enjoy watching my HM2 graph keep climbing almost every day.

So currently I am playing $1.50 Stars 6-max hypers to log the volume. I was sitting at $1.00 and $2.25 games at Tilt while doing this thinking there would be less regs, but it seems to be the other way around. The difference is likely miniscule in the long run, but I for sure feel more comfortable playing the Stars games. Of course the games load quicker, so it is likely better for the hourly rate as well. It isn't that they are all really terrible players at Stars, most actually seem pretty competent, but the difference is that the small mistakes seem to happen at a much higher rate. Antes likely are the main reason why this happens. The slight shove and call range errors that I catch out of the corner of my eye aren't too bad, but they are mistakes that someone who has a great understanding of ICM wouldn't make. I remember hearing that the real money isn't made about how many great decisions you make, but how many bad ones the fishes make. For that reason, as long as you can make a educated range adjustment, these stakes will always have money to be made for a good reg.

I know I have been running pretty damn well, but I do think I found myself a new main game and a new plan to move up through the stakes at the quickest pace. I'll move myself over to the $3.50 games in the next couple weeks I imagine, I just want to get enough data at the $1.50 limit to figure out where I am sitting. Over about 100 games I am sitting at an ITM of almost 60%, ROI almost 60% and running somewhat around 1.2x over what the EV line suggests. So obviously I am just killing it, but soon enough I will get my way around 1000 games and have a better idea of what I am doing. But I think I have got it close enough to demonstrate that I am a winning player at this game and stake.

Currently I believe my hourly rate to be around $3.00 - $5.00 playing these games.
BR ~$650

Haha, and I thought I was smart and current with online poker...

Like really, lol, did you know that SitNGo Wizard 2.0 beta has been released for almost a year and a half already? And I was just about to subscribe to ICMizer to get the future game simulation calculations included in my review.

Well, at least this might look somewhat promising to future grinders. If you can let something as important as this beta release slip under your nose for 16 months, you can still make money at poker.

Hey, at least I finally got it on my own eh? Here is to some epic fine tuning of my push-fold game.

And in case you missed it, ICM failing to consider future situations has been one of the topics I have been trying to wrap my head around lately.

Postflop will have to wait, lol.

A New Beginning

So it begins again...

I remember thinking about this period in my poker career at one point in time, must have been roughly two years ago. I imagined this time as the point where I would have a bunch of choices about where to take my game in the next short while. This comes as a result that I am finally grinding out my way through the low games, no longer in the micros. The regs that I see sometimes are actually significant winning players, the average losing players are getting closer to LAG rather than LPASS and every once in a while someone who is just crushing the stakes I am playing sits at my table. But the most important revelation is that I need to study and review the key hands of every session to keep the trend going. No longer does the ABC style of poker give me the most significant edge in the long run. I have to open my 3B against min raises more because they don't only mean the villain wants action on his aces. I have to open my late position ATS because those smallish +EV situations are so much more important. I have to play better post flop and extract full value from LAG regs and fish alike.

In short, poker has become much harder, much more exciting, but also a tonne more fun. Watching that BR grow also has it's way of making me smile.

I feel like I am learning the game all over again, and in reality that is not too far from the truth. I have spent the better part of two years researching, studying and deciphering the deepest aspects of ICM and it's application to poker. I still have a hell of a lot of work to do there, and I don't want to let my progress become complacent, but I do feel comfortable enough for me to open up other parts of my game to squeeze out every last bit of ROI that I can. ICM has been and will likely continue to be the strongest part of my game, almost guaranteeing me a slightly better than breakeven poker game at the low stakes, but now I want to learn more. I kind of feel like a kid who finally learned to read and is just opening his first Goosebumps book.

The concept I believe that I will spend most of my time on and give me the most value is basically post flop play. This has a lot of aspects to it, but mostly I am looking forward to being able to open up my late position steals, BB defends and the like knowing that I will outplay my opponents on the flop. Also, being more comfortable with deep stack play in early game situations will be another benefit.

This will likely be accomplished by spending more time on those types of hands as they come along and less on the ICM heavy situations that I have somewhat mastered already, but I have some other ideas. Basically I will take a look at giving cash games a try, mostly as a training ground for me to develop those concepts. I mean, it can't hurt really. My ABI is already more than a full buy in at 1c/2c, so as long as it takes me over 15 minutes to lose it I consider that cheap education. I already have tons of experience in MTTSNGs and MTT tournies, but post flop play doesn't take place too much at the micro turbos. Those seem to be more of a 3b/4b/ft3b game of value chicken to me rather than a place to practice basic concepts.

Aside from the practice, the real game plan consists of $2.25 and $5.00 games on Tilt for the grind. I have also started to play a mix of the $1.00 - 180 man hypers on Stars and $0.50 / $1.00 hyper 6max games on Tilt for those shorter sessions where I just want to chill and play some poker.

tldr

- moving up stakes
- expanding my theory in cash games
- looking forward to it

BR ~ $580

Back, But Never Really Gone >>> My Secret Game

So it has been a seed in my mind that I should keep this diary / blog ongoing. Kind of cool that it seems there may be a few people who are checking me out, interested in what I have to say. Yes, I am watching your interwebs. I wonder how many of those are fellow 2p2'ers, how many are people checking my stats mid-tournie and how many are people spamming to sell me cock pumps...

Oh well, this blog is mostly for me just so you know.

Been a hell of a long time since my last post, so let's recap. For the first few months after my last post things went basically as planned. On tilt I played the $1.00 turbos mostly and mixed in some $0.50 hypers. Occasionally I would take a stab at the $2.25 games with some moderate results, just not a heck of a lot of volume. IIRC, I made a transition back to MTTSNGs shortly after that. Stars rolled out some new $0.50 turbos, 180 man and 360 man. I logged a ton of volume with those and had some moderate success. That put my roll somewhere around $300 by Sept - Oct.

I made a real change to the games I played right around that time. I played the MTTSNGs almost exclusively and tried to work my way up the ranks there. The $1.50 45 man turbo burnt quite of bit of my profits there somewhat due to lack of volume, but I managed to keep on trucking. The real problem was I was starting to have my edge reduced from the shit ton of regs at that game and the variance was unreal. From here I started playing almost every NLH MTT that stars offered during my normal play hours. Pretty much broke even, had a couple fun nights and did pretty decent overall. During that time the best result I would imagine was placing 3rd out of ~1400 in the $0.25 MTT that runs late at night, cashed for ~$43. Had one real decent run at the big $2.20, I think I placed somewhere around 60th or 70th for once again ~$40, but got three outted OTR with a 1.5x avg stack where I imagine I could have made a serious run at the FT. I felt like I was playing great, started to see the value in large MTTs and almost made my first 3 figure score (or even 4 figure).

Anyways...

While I was playing the large MTTs, I would load up some of the $1.00 180 man hypers to get some volume and keep myself interested. With the strong ICM background I developed playing STTSNGs I felt that I could at least make a few bucks in the long run and possibly gain some rake back; the thought never occured to me that I might actually make those my main game.

That is my graph from basically late December of 2013 until now. By far my winningest game in somewhere between 1/10th to 1/4 of the time of all the $0.50 turbo games combined. That also doesn't include the games I played on my phone! I mean, it basically plays itself, who needs a HUD in that game where the avg stack at the FT is like 6-7 bbs. I have registered I think three double diget winning days since I started playing almost exclusively those. I mean, I don't even play the MTTs anymore because I have such a better hourly rate playing these. Maybe I shouldn't be saying anything, but then again, not many people reading this will have the background that I have. I mean, once you REALLY know your ICM, and I mean REALLY know your ICM with respect to MTTSNGs, this game is printing money. Sure, I may still be averaging out something far less than minimum wage, but this is seriously a BR builder. The regs that are beyond my skill level play far higher stakes and the vast majority of people playing this game either have know idea what they are doing or are just looking for quick gambolz.

As a result I have build my roll to ~$565 and have just about passed this game behind me. I have catapulted my BR to the point where I can comfortably play the $3.50 turbos on stars, face off against mostly fish and poor regs, get a decent hourly rate and start looking at seriously replacing my income with poker winnings. I have a few more levels to jump through, but I do believe that if I played the $1.00 hypers during the peak global hours and the $3.50 during my regular hours, put in 60+ hours per week, I can cover my meager expenses and still build the roll comfortably each month. Plug that in with the occasional bink in a  'Big $X.XX' tourny and we have ourselves, ladies and gentlemen, someone who made it. I am SO close I can taste it, got a tonne of work to do as far as volume goes, but I know I am at that point where I can see the light at the end of the tunnel.

//

On a personal note, I quit my old job and found one that is better suited for my personality and is much more flexible with my time. I am sleeping better, eating better, exercising more and generally have put my life on the right track to ensure I keep this momentum rolling. It is kind of funny really, the momentum started about 6 years ago now when I first made the decision to learn about success principles and apply them to my life. I guess this is the point that I was working toward all along. Super pumped to bring myself to the next step, the plan is still there to break $100K in a year and now I can plan for the next immediate steps.

Also, not so humble brag, I finally broke the friend zone during the past few months. Bagged me quite the little cutie who I was friends with for a few years. Just kept at it, not pushing anything and finally woke up at the right time and right place to put a solid foundation down. She is easily the best thing going on in my life at the moment and I hope that when you read this babe you know just how special you are. Yes, you and your face! You dork!

Here is to a great 2014, the best year of my life thus far!

Go cry emo fishies

So yeah, I'll tap the fishbowl a bit here.

Recently there have been a slew of forums popping up on 2p2 talking about how online poker is dead and you just can't make a living off of it anymore. Now sure, I have a bias obviously since I am writing this blog, but I just can't stand some of the perspectives presented there.

Nothing, and I mean literally nothing in poker, is impossible. Hard? Sure, without a doubt. Harder than working for someone else for 40 years making their dreams come true? Harder than 60 hour work weeks getting stuck in rush hour traffic? That I doubt.

I didn't play back in the hay day of online poker where 16 year old high school students binked a freeroll and ramped it up to six figures before they were 18. I didn't play back in the day where reading a couple books and figuring out starting hand ranges was all it took to grind out the mid stakes. I started where you are likely to find 4-5 decent regs at every $1.50 nine man SNG at any given time. The point being here is the people who played back in 2006 and made tons of easy money fell into the complacency mind set.

It is too much of a shot to the ego for these people to admit they fell behind the game. It is too scary, too hard for people to admit they are nowhere near as good as they think they are. Maybe some people are just lazy and don't care to put the needed effort into their games. Who knows? But one thing that I know for sure is with proper planning, tireless study and determined execution anything is possible.

Job mentality, I feel, has penetrated the minds of these people who choose to whine on internet poker forums. That is, the job mentality of doing the least amount of work possible for the biggest return. Think about it, really that is what the governing principle is between employees and employers. The employee wants to do as little as possible and get paid as much as possible. The employer wants to squeeze as much effort from the worker as possible while paying them the least. Might be a bit of an extreme way to put it, but that is the paradigm we face today.

Some people just apply this philosophy to everything in life, including poker. And it is easy to see how that sets you up for failure in poker as well as almost every other area in life. I fall subject to that same mentality while putting in the hours at my job. I want to do just enough to fly under the radar and keep my job. I don't want to get more projects and more responsibility without guarantee of increased pay. I don't want my boss trying to get me to do more with less. If my job would allow me the freedom, and same pay, to leave as soon as I have my list of tasks complete, I would work my ass off for however long it took to do the job right and then take off. That is because I would have incentive to do so. The result would be the same amount of work completed to the same level of excellence, and maybe even better, in a much shorter time. Now if that isn't efficiency then I don't know what it. That is the way I approach poker. I work my ass off doing everything I can to grow as a player knowing the results will show when I have earned them.

So sure, it is hard. No way is poker as soft as it used to be and will likely get harder for the next several years to come. But I know that if I put my best effort forward I will overcome the average expected results and stamp my name amongst my poker heroes. Or at least replace my income and take control of my life not living up to the 50 hour work week demand society has placed upon me.

As Norman Chad said in the recent WSOP main event replay, "Winners win, whiners whine".

Now I'll get back to winning

/rant

BR ~$250

Life Hack - Update

Well it really has been a hell of a long time since I last posted, might as well keep this together.

One of the reasons why I started this blog was to have some kind of cool down procedure where I would write about my game. I have since been keeping point form study notes derived from review of each session. Not trying to make excuses, but I have not felt like writing until today.

The past month and a bit have been awesome for me all around.

Full Tilt

Stars

Overall I have been doing well at the stakes, logging about 500 games with a ROI of around 10%. Recent changes to my strategy have been to log 150 games per week, maintaining the stab at $1.50 on stars and studying not every hand but big or marked hands from every session. There has been a decent increase to the time put into study as well, but I don't track that so this is all the graphs you get. Once I get to ~$225 I will start to add $2.25 games from Tilt to my rotation.

I feel that since I started this blog my poker game has benefited yes, but more so the other areas of my life have felt an up tick. I really have been cracking down on my game, just relentlessly pursuing excellence and that has boiled over into the other areas of my life. Just because my mind is that much sharper, I perform better at work as well as with music. I remember a quote I heard once, something to the effect of "When one is excellent at one area of life he tends to be excellent at all areas of life".

As a result of that perspective taking hold I started a band with a couple friends over the weekend. We are doing it for more than fun; we want to fulfill a life long dream and ambition. Just as with poker, I dream of taking my talents to a larger stage and I know if I work smart enough I can get there.

BR ~ $205

Now for fun, I will leave you with one of the smartest life hacks I have ever seen